• dragontamer@lemmy.world
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    5 months ago

    Derivatives always were measured over infinitely small intervals. Basic calculus. And inflation always was the derivative of prices.

    Prices are prices. If you want to complain about prices, then complain about prices. But we all know we aren’t going to do anything about prices. Furthermore: falling prices are utterly terrible for economies, so no one wants to force deflation.

    Inflation followed by disinflation (ie: holding prices steady after a runup) is our best chance of keeping the economy moving forward. Seriously. Literally no one is asking for lower prices. Its too dangerous.

    • protist@mander.xyz
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      5 months ago

      The prices of commodities fall all the time. What you’re saying about prices does hold true for eg durable goods, but food prices have always fluctuated up and down more than other goods. I’ll be perfectly fine with lower prices at the grocery

    • snooggums@midwest.social
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      5 months ago

      Furthermore: falling prices are utterly terrible for economies, so no one wants to force deflation.

      Oh wow, I didn’t know that more efficient production methods were terrible for the economy. TIL.

        • supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz
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          5 months ago

          Recipe For Economics: Strip out all the fun interesting parts of Astrology, add a suffocating amount of clueless bros, and dump a full bottle of “rationalizations for not caring about the consequences of our cruelty” on top.

        • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          I’m not talking about GDP.

          I’m talking about fucking Deflation. The gremlin that caused the Great Depression so no one wants to fuck with Deflation anymore.

          The fuck are you in about randomly bringing up GDP when I’m talking about a completely different subject? Are you on some kind of derailment kick right now?

      • afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        @Punnyname got it right, just say “rich people’s yachts” whenever you see the word “economy” and everything you read makes sense.

      • FunkyMonk@kbin.social
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        5 months ago

        If you are a human it’s called rich lizzard yacht money, to the lizzzard people it’s called economics.

      • partial_accumen@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        Oh wow, I didn’t know that more efficient production methods were terrible for the economy. TIL.

        Here’s an example. Lots of people say they would like to own a Battery Elective Vehicle (BEV). One of the most common reason not to is “the price is too high”. There is a segment of people that can afford the higher price but are waiting for prices to fall with the assumed more efficient production methods in place in the future. So these buyers are NOT spending yet. While that may be a good personal finance choice, that lack of spending is bad for the economy as there is less money for auto dealerships, auto transporters, factory workers, parts suppliers, raw materials producers.

        If there was no assumption of future falling prices (deflation) those buyers would have already bought a BEV (as they were during the pandemic when prices weren’t likely to fall).

        • xtr0n@sh.itjust.works
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          5 months ago

          Yeah, but we’re talking about groceries. No one says “I’m gonna fast this week cuz I think groceries will be cheaper next week”

          • partial_accumen@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            No one says “I’m gonna fast this week cuz I think groceries will be cheaper next week”

            They’d say instead “I’ll buy the cheap coffee instead of the good stuff and get the store brand blend of olive oil instead of the EVOO I usually like instead to hold me over until the prices fall next week. I’ll also hold off on getting steaks this week and instead get some cheap chicken thighs”.

          • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            No.

            People say I’m going to fire all of these meatpackers because COVID-19 closed down the Hotel all this meat is going to and bam, -30% + deflation starts to kick in and our politicians start to panick, because those politicians are smarter than you and know where that was going.


            Politicians overcorrected and caused inflation from overaddressing our COVID-19 issue. But I’d rather live with inflation than the massive job loss numbers that was facing us in 2020.

            Now today, we have a bunch of dumbasses who can’t even remember the economic calamity we avoided just 4 years ago complaining about inflation that happened fucking years ago.


            https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21243636/meat-packing-plant-supply-chain-animals-killed

            https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/19/millions-of-us-farm-animals-to-be-culled-by-suffocation-drowning-and-shooting-coronavirus

            This shit just happened and people are like “Why the fuck did meat prices go up?”. How short-term are yall’s memory? And then we used economics to print a fuck-ton more money to encourage more people to eat meat (to minimize the boom/bust… borrowing from the future so that we’d eat more meat during the COVID19 era), and people wonder where the hell all this inflation came from.

            Its pretty fucking straightforward yo. We saved the jobs, we tried to mitigate the culling of hogs / cows. Then we had a boom/bust period that ultimately concluded with 2022-era inflation, and then we tried to deal with that. COVID19 was a very difficult time for policymakers, economics. But we lived through it, but still are dealing with the “ripples” of that change.

            Was it perfect? Hell no. Now that we know today’s statistics, we can say that we printed too much money and left interest% rates too low. But overall, we did the right thing, and it’d require a crystal ball showing 2024 data to know whether we printed too much (or too little) money back in 2020. I’m happy we chose to err on the side of inflation and save as many jobs as possible, and if we had a time-machine I’d go back to 2020 and overall support the same actions (though maybe a bit less money-printing so that we don’t have quite as much inflation).

          • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/29/millions-of-farm-animals-culled-as-us-food-supply-chain-chokes-up-coronavirus

            US government vets said to be ready to assist with culls, or ‘depopulation’ of pigs, chickens and cattle because of coronavirus meat plant closures

            You’re a dumbass. Americans stopped eating on a mass-scale due to COVID19, leading to a historical culling of pigs and cows, leading to a boom/bust of our food supply culminating in today’s inflation.

            I support the politicians (and yes, bankers) who did hard work to counteract this problem (especially as they acted swiftly, and across party lines). And I shit on people like you who wish to just shit on the hard work of our leaders on this subject. Especially because you’re clearly too stupid to figure out basic history on this subject.

            What we did years ago is something to be proud of. But it has a cost, the calculations weren’t perfect and we’re dealing with more inflation than expected in the year 2022. And as the graph at the beginning of the topic points out, the inflation was almost entirely during 2022, and has been hampered by now.

            We still need to get used to these newer, higher, prices. But its better than the alternative (Without decisive action back then, we’d have even even larger-scale closures of food supply across the country. Which would have led to an even worse bust-boom bullwhip effect in our country)

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        Deflation always leads to job loss.

        The US policy is biased towards saving jobs, not really towards being the cheapest stuff. And IMO, I agree with this. In many senses, job preservation is far more important.

          • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            Dude, COVID19 dropped prices across the board. How cheap were Hotels? Meat? Do you remember the $2 gas prices?

            That grey line? That was deflation happening for one month and then every politician in the country stepping on the “inflation button” at the same time. It didn’t matter if you were Republican or Democrat, literally everyone got together in a couple of days and said “Yeah, lets print $1.5 Trillion bucks”.

            THIS is what caused the inflation. M2 (aka: the amount of money in the USA).

            And every politician hit the “Make more M2 / Make more money button” because holy shit COVID19 is fucking our economy, we’re about to fall into deflationary spiral somebody please save us mode.


            Job losses caused inflation, because politicians got together and did something about it. And they did it so quickly that most people seem to have forgotten it despite it only being 4 years ago and you’re fucking up the order of history. COVID19 shut things down, and then came the inflationary stimulus / law changes

    • PunnyName@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      Replace each instance of the word “economy” with “rich people’s yachts” and this comment makes a LOT more sense.

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        I have a fuckton of Democrats and Liberals crying about the unemployment rate. Do you want me to start posting them or do you actually have a memory that lasts longer than 1 year?

        yachts

        Its not yachts. We’re talking about people’s jobs and livlihoods here. Its a terrible price to pay if we get this wrong, so in many cases people err on the side of inflation.

        Its better to get inflation (which is annoying but something we all can ultimately survive) than to have deflation + job losses.

        • afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          (fast comment male voice) This proceeding comment was paid message brought to you by Goldman Sachs.

          (Women’s voice read slowly) Goldman Sachs, because fuck Detroit and fuck your pension.

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        Soccer moms say ‘I want to keep my job’.

        Which is interpreted to be ‘We must avoid deflation’ by the Fed. Because these two statements are one and the same.

        Between the choice of widespread unemployment vs fixing inflation, the policymakers came up with the current strategy. Lower inflation (aka: first derivative of price chances), which should hold jobs steadier than other options.

        The Fed has a very blunt instrument for economic policy. It’s either lose jobs but fix inflation (aka higher rates), or more jobs but inflation gets out of hand (aka lower rates).

        That’s just how the world works. Those are the only two choices the Fed has.

              • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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                5 months ago

                Lovely.

                There’s two directions. You can raise rates, or you can lower them. Raising rates causes job losses but culls back inflation. Lowering rates increases the number of jobs but causes inflation to go up.

                Its a fucking number… Because its a number, there’s only two directions to go. Up or down. Or zero if you want to split into a 3rd option for some reason. But not much aside from “raise”, “hold” or “lower” rates.

                Now comes the political debate. Should we have been raising rates last year? Or should we have been lowering rates last year? And survey says… Oh right, liberals were asking to lower rates (ie: making inflation worse). Ding ding ding!! It pays to be a dumbass, because its the only way you can keep your petty little brain straight, isn’t it? You don’t like facing reality of your side’s opinions, do you?

                Its not just conservative dumbasses who are unable to foresee basic problems with their politics, but also far left liberals who demonstrate ignorance. Thank you for making an example of yourself.

                • TubularTittyFrog@lemmy.world
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                  5 months ago

                  nah bro, we just need to go back to the gold standard and elimintae the fed

                  that will fix the economy and deflate prices and make surge job growth…

                  • so say idiots on the left and the right.
      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        As opposed to you? Who has come into the topic to talk about CPI and Inflation while proudly displaying ignorance to simple monetary matters?

        If you want to talk about health, you bring in doctors or other health specialists. If you want to talk about the economy and how to best build a country and a system of money, you need to bring in bankers and economists.

        If you don’t care about money, then leave the topic. Don’t shit on people while being ignorant, at least take a step forward and learn the basics.

        • afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          Heard it right here folks. Don’t think, don’t observe, don’t comment. Have blind faith in the economists, economists who continue and consistently lie to us about the situation because their banker friends are paying them to do it.

          Not a science with zero predictive power.

          Now off you go, write some article about how awesome student loans are and how universal healthcare is a a bad idea. Fortune or the Economist both will publish it.

          • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            You sound like a COVID19 denialist. Except instead of denying basic health science, you’re denying basic economics. I’m not sure if you really want that look for yourself.

            But yeah, who cares about Fauci or whatever health care specialists think. They’re all paid off by the liberals. No wait, I’m on a liberal forum now. I’m supposed to hate bankers and economists now and deny basic economics. Yeah…

            Who cares about Powell or basic economic predictive factors like M2, montetary policy, CPI or inflation. Those guys don’t know anything anyway, despite saving our jobs and preventing one of the worst economic disasters of our country in the last hundred years. They’re all dumbass rich elites from the coast. (No wait, that’s a conservative talking point, right?). Erm… they’re all rich bankers. Right, rich people. Not elites, its conservatives who hate elities, its liberals who hate rich people.

            But in all cases, proudly displaying ignorance is the best move. Amirite? Who needs an education or studying anyway? Its all bullshit.

            • afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world
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              5 months ago

              You sound like a COVID19 denialist.

              Come up with better insults banker. I been called much by much better.

              Except instead of denying basic health science, you’re denying basic economics. I’m not sure if you really want that look for yourself.

              Except instead of denying basic health science, you’re denying basic RICH PERSON’S YATCHTS. I’m not sure if you really want that look for yourself.

              Ftfy

              But yeah, who cares about Fauci or whatever health care specialists think. They’re all paid off by the liberals. No wait, I’m on a liberal forum now. I’

              Now now let’s not compared medicine to your playtime rules.

              Supposed to hate bankers and economists now and deny basic economics.

              Supposed to hate bankers and economists now and deny basic RICH PERSON’S YATCHTS.

              God that works so well.

              But in all cases, proudly displaying ignorance is the best move. Amirite?

              Well it is certainly working for your boys CATO and Heritage.

              • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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                5 months ago

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFGzz839ZU

                Cry more to AOC, who was part of this inflation problem crying about jobs and holding back Powell from raising the FFR to combat inflation.

                Oh right, you’re a dumbass who don’t realize you’re shitting on your own side right now. AOC cried about everyone’s jobsss and unemployment that’s completely fucking non-existent right now. We undershot the employment rate, its clear we had to go higher and steeper with these interest rate hikes.

                And you’re here sitting like an idiot, unable to comprehend basic history, fucking up your side of the discussion.

                But sure, pretend that I’m the one who is a problem despite taking my time to talk about what’s going on. You’re welcome by the way, now please, sit down and think about your discussion points and where the politics have been laid out over the past couple of years.


                Powell here was right and honestly… Powell was on the side that protected jobs too much. We all had to go higher on the FFR and push % even higher given what we know about the situation today.

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        Liberals are asking for all kinds of inflationary pressures. Student loan forgiveness, higher minimum wages, job protections. And most dramatically, AOC asking for lower rates when talking to Powell last year.

        It’s actually rather difficult for me to think of a singular Democrat policy that’d have deflationary effects… Well… There’s always raising taxes which I’d strongly support. Especially right now when inflation is at the forefront of a lot of people’s minds. It’d cause a slowdown in spending and likely drop prices.

        • TubularTittyFrog@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          pretty much.

          i’m sure some people deserve student loan forgiveness. but most people i know who got it didn’t. they were purposing not paying back their loan so they could spend money elsewhere on luxuries.

          and interest rates shoudl stay high. lowering them again to 1% will further fuck the economy for the working class like it has been for the past 20+ years of low rates. poor people don’t borrow much money, rich people do. Hence why wall st is the one pushing super hard to lower rates again.

    • Tryptaminev@lemm.ee
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      5 months ago

      Your math is poor a.f. And your argumentation doesn’t hold. The inflation rate is the relative change over a defined time-period. It is not a derivate. And a 10% interest rate p.a. corresponds to a .026 % interest rate per day. But that is still not the derivate. If we look at hours we are at a rate of .00109 %. And that is still not a derivate.

      So @[email protected] is absolutely right also for interest rates. If you look at arbitrarily small timeframes it will always become a very small number.

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        The inflation rate is the relative change over a defined time-period. It is not a derivate.

        Have you taken Calculus? This is one of the most basic of Calculus subjects. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_derivative

        Time derivatives are a key concept in physics. For example, for a changing position x its time derivative dx/dt is its velocity, and its second derivative with respect to time, d2x/dt2 is its acceleration. Even higher derivatives are sometimes also used: the third derivative of position with respect to time is known as the jerk. See motion graphs and derivatives.

        I know not everyone takes Calculus. But this is quite elementary if you’ve taken the subject. There should be no confusion here.


        Inflation is the change of price over the change of time. Or alternatively, Inflation describes the first derivative of price. What people care about however is the overall price, which unfortunately policy-makers can’t really control that well. We only have controls over the change-of-prices (ie: the derivative), not the actual direct price controls.

        EDIT: My note about “infinitely small intervals” is the basic limit definition of the Derivative. https://tutorial.math.lamar.edu/classes/calci/defnofderivative.aspx

        • Tryptaminev@lemm.ee
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          5 months ago

          The interest rate is commonly given p.a. so per year. So if you take a shorter time it becomes arbitrarily small. But to take acceleration as an example. If you have an acceleration of 1 m/s² it is a derivate. But if you take it as the acceleration over a year you get 31,536,000 m/year² which is also technically a derivate, but a completely nonsensical expression.

          And that was the joke @[email protected] made. And you showed why mathematicians don’t like it if economists want to brag about their math knowledge. Because you think your basic calculus qualifies you to be overly pedantic without showing real understanding of the concepts behind it.

          • dragontamer@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            doesnt stop my can of sparkling water from doubling in price in the last few years just because you want to limit “inflation” changes to ‘12 months’

            You’re going the wrong direction yo to his original words. I don’t even know what you’re complaining about anymore. The original poster was trying to stretch time out to multiple years. My joke was that shorter-time frames is what is more accurate because that’s what mathematics / calculus has traditionally done.


            I’ve said my piece, and I stand by it. I’ll repeat it here.

            Prices are prices. If you want to complain about prices, then complain about prices. But we all know we aren’t going to do anything about prices. Furthermore: falling prices are utterly terrible for economies, so no one wants to force deflation.

            I’ve done many inflation topics over the last 5 years. I’m surprised at how utterly shit people around here on this topic are. I’d expected more of lemmy users to know the basics of this subject. But I do appreciate you trying to catch me on a technicality, however arbitrary it was… you’ve demonstrated that you’re at least at the Calculus level to me.