Yeah I find it hard to believe that the Israeli intelligence apparatus, Mossad, one of the best HUMINT organizations on par with the old Soviet Union KGB, failed to see October 7 coming.
Also warnings from US SIGINT that an attack was probable about a month in advance.
The fact that the Qatari funds have been enabled by Netanyahu is pretty etablished. The casus belli is pure speculation. Do you have a source for that?
I really think there are two different aspects to the classification of the threat. It’s actually pretty analogous to the Afghanistan War.
First, neither Al Quaeda nor Hamas represent an existential threat to their opponents. The US hasn’t really faced a believable existential threat since the collapse of the USSR, Israel hasn’t really faced one since the 80s. Countries in Eastern Europe face an existential threat from Russia. And so on. Killing 1200 (or 3000) people, no matter how brutally or unjustified or evil it seems, it does not threaten to destroy the state of Israel. It is, of course, now an existential threat to Netanyahu, which is one reason why it’s being pursued with such enthusiasm.
The second aspect builds from the first and questions whether the solution pursued by Israel (and the US) were both efficient (ie proportional to the threat so as not to divert attention and resources from other threats) and effective. They have to be expected to achieve specific and measurable goals and timelines.
The ability to pull off an Oct 7th might have been equally well but more efficiently and effectively with intelligence and commando units, and Israel would have been given free rein by most of the planet to do so.
Tbf the US was doing just fine in Afghanistan until Bush literally let Bin Laden just walk away because he wanted to make a show of the Northern Alliance capturing him and turning him over.
From that point forward it was a saga of willful ignorance to the fact that Pakistan would literally do everything to make the mission harder because the US wanted a stable Afghanistan that doesn’t let the Taliban come back and Pakistan wanted an effective zone of no governance that can’t raise claims on Pashtunistan and Balochistan.
Israel are just being a bunch of weenies too afraid to develop a strategy to enter the tunnels to actually pursue any of the goals they claim they’re after while quarantining refugee camps from entryways into the tunnel system to seal anyone hiding or rallying down there off from being able to just hop out and pretend to be civvies at the end of the work shift.
Israel could easily have turned this into a point to point clear and capture operation on the tunnels since it’s so blatantly obvious that Hamas is hiding in there with the hostages, but they aren’t doing that because that would require actually using Israeli troops and Israeli troops are slowly turning more and more mutinous towards the current regime.
Hamas never posed an existential threat to Israel.
“Major” meaning they couldn’t pull off another October 7th
Though really they shouldn’t have been able to pull off the first October 7th.
Yup, reminder that they ignored prior warnings
Yeah I find it hard to believe that the Israeli intelligence apparatus, Mossad, one of the best HUMINT organizations on par with the old Soviet Union KGB, failed to see October 7 coming.
Also warnings from US SIGINT that an attack was probable about a month in advance.
And strongly suspected of outright sponsoring Hamas to generate the casus belli
That’s not even just a strong suspicion, that’s established fact. Even aggressively pro-regime rags such as Times of Israel, The New York Times and The Jerusalem Post acknowledge as much.
In the 7th attacks maybe but we don’t know yet. We do know that Israel has funded them in the past though
The fact that the Qatari funds have been enabled by Netanyahu is pretty etablished. The casus belli is pure speculation. Do you have a source for that?
I really think there are two different aspects to the classification of the threat. It’s actually pretty analogous to the Afghanistan War.
First, neither Al Quaeda nor Hamas represent an existential threat to their opponents. The US hasn’t really faced a believable existential threat since the collapse of the USSR, Israel hasn’t really faced one since the 80s. Countries in Eastern Europe face an existential threat from Russia. And so on. Killing 1200 (or 3000) people, no matter how brutally or unjustified or evil it seems, it does not threaten to destroy the state of Israel. It is, of course, now an existential threat to Netanyahu, which is one reason why it’s being pursued with such enthusiasm.
The second aspect builds from the first and questions whether the solution pursued by Israel (and the US) were both efficient (ie proportional to the threat so as not to divert attention and resources from other threats) and effective. They have to be expected to achieve specific and measurable goals and timelines.
The ability to pull off an Oct 7th might have been equally well but more efficiently and effectively with intelligence and commando units, and Israel would have been given free rein by most of the planet to do so.
Tbf the US was doing just fine in Afghanistan until Bush literally let Bin Laden just walk away because he wanted to make a show of the Northern Alliance capturing him and turning him over.
From that point forward it was a saga of willful ignorance to the fact that Pakistan would literally do everything to make the mission harder because the US wanted a stable Afghanistan that doesn’t let the Taliban come back and Pakistan wanted an effective zone of no governance that can’t raise claims on Pashtunistan and Balochistan.
Israel are just being a bunch of weenies too afraid to develop a strategy to enter the tunnels to actually pursue any of the goals they claim they’re after while quarantining refugee camps from entryways into the tunnel system to seal anyone hiding or rallying down there off from being able to just hop out and pretend to be civvies at the end of the work shift.
Israel could easily have turned this into a point to point clear and capture operation on the tunnels since it’s so blatantly obvious that Hamas is hiding in there with the hostages, but they aren’t doing that because that would require actually using Israeli troops and Israeli troops are slowly turning more and more mutinous towards the current regime.