NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.
If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.
Right except people aren’t lemmings. Just because I hear some talking head say how he thinks there will be a recession in a month doesn’t mean I cut all spending.
An individual is not a lemming, no. But people? People are scared, stupid, lemmings who will follow the crowd, almost every time.
We’re social creatures, designed to work in groups. The downside (or upside I guess) is that people do follow the crowd.
If people followed the crowd vaccination rates would be 100%. Remind me again what they really are. People, real freaken people, make bad decisions, they don’t listen to experts, they expert shop, they go against the grain, they go against what they are told they should do. They are brave, cowardly, stupid, smart, ruthless, and nice.
This is why economist is bull crap. They build these models assuming the very worst about humanity and demand we all act that way. So of course if your base assumption is that humans blindly trust anyone who calls themselves an expert and can only think short term they would sell everything if they hear a whisper of recession.
I look at the numbers for investing not what some moron on TV shooting stuff has to say.
https://youtu.be/gUkbdjetlY8?si=zaw0AV3QvbN6PXYv
Remember this? Nah bet you don’t.
… What? Did you click on the wrong comment?
No.
You wanna try your comment again, then, and make it relevant to the comment youre clicking on?
Or was the comment being gibberish intentional?
I don’t see what is confusing. You made the claim that the act of predicting a recession can cause a recession and stated a mechanism. I pointed out that predictions of recessions are rarely accurate and the mechanism doesnt work the way you described.
Yeah, see, this is why I think you clicked on the wrong comment.
I said that an economy is a result of humans acting, and that the act of stating a recession is coming is enough to change peoples actions to either cause or prevent a recession.
You then launched into some unrelated nonsense about being lemmings.
Do you need help finding the comment you meant to respond to?
Again. You can’t just declare or undeclare a recession
You really struggle with reading, eh sport? Not one for grasping words?
Do you wanna try responding to things Ive said? Isntead of whatever that ghost in your head is whispering to you?