Have you heard of The Longing? It doesn’t tick all your boxes but it is definitely a long term game that has you make slow, real-time progress while the real time clock of 400 days is ticking down. Not really management sim progress though.
On the more managy side, I’ve had some fun with Factory Idle. Essentially mini-Factorio as an idle game.
One in five is quite a bit. To make an extreme example: If one in five people on the street were looking to stab you, you’d be thinking there’s a lot of people wanting you dead.
Also it’s ca. one in three among the young men, which is terrifying. And if the “more favorable among heterosexual” holds true for only the male half (I see no reason why it wouldn’t), that’s even higher among that demographic.
Fuck that’s scary.