WASHINGTON—In a trend that is reducing the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels by curtailing the total number of cars on the road, a study released Thursday by the Transportation Department found that more Americans than ever are commuting to work splattered on the grill of a Ford F-150. “Increasingly, U.S.…
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 Put enough good quality alternatives in, and you can get modal shift without resorting to punative measures.
If walking, cycling, or catching a train to a given destination is faster and easier than driving, then that’s what many people will do.
But those alternatives — fast metro systems, frequent busses, light rail, barrier-protected and off-street cycling paths — need to be in place first.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
You can obviously do whatever policy advocacy you want. IMO it’s not actually possible to make walking, biking and transit more convenient and less costly than driving without increasing the cost of driving. Higher gas prices and better transit reinforces each other.
Meanwhile the existing pollution and car dependency creates real harm every day it persists.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
It seems pretty obvious to me that we’re not mitigating harm to low income or marginalized folks by making it cheap for middle class folks to pollute and cause traffic violence, despite whatever benefits people might get from low gas prices.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
I can’t speak to Australian demographics but in the US the lowest decile of income is 9 times more likely to not own a car. So they don’t get any benefits from low gas prices but they still have to pay the costs of pollution, traffic violence and a political economy that hates transit because driving is so cheap and easy for the middle class.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 Here’s the timetable for the Sydney Northwest Metro: https://transportnsw.info/documents/timetables/93-M-Sydney-Metro-North-West-20230929.pdf
It has a service every four minutes during the morning and evening peak.
I’ve attached a screenshot from Google Maps showing what’s typical 8am morning commute would look like from Rouse Hill to Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park business precinct.
It’s typically 40 minutes by car. You have to have your hands on the wheel. You’re stuck in traffic. That’s if you pay $9.56 or $14.13 for a toll road, which is a bit quicker.
Or you can take the Metro.
Trains run every four minutes during the morning peak, so you can turn up and go. It’s a modern service with driverless trains and platform-screen doors.
It takes 32 minutes — so it’s the faster option. And you can do other things during your commute.
(I’ve attached a screenshot, please note you might need to see the original post to view it.)
The train is the faster and more convenient option.
Why wouldn’t you take the Metro?
This isn’t because the state government has done anything to hobble road driving.
It’s because the NSW State Government has invested in building a good quality, frequent Metro service to the northwestern suburbs.
The Metro has been a catalyst for building a number of transit-oriented developments at each of the stations. For the people living in those apartments, there’s a clear winner.
The problem is that for around 70 years after WW2, governments have zoned whole suburbs for low-density residential.
These car-dependent suburbs, cars were the only viable option for getting to work, school, or shopping. By design.
At best, there’s an often unreliable bus that runs every 20 minutes during the peak. And that’s it.
At least in Australia, they tend to be on the outer fringes of the major metropolitan areas. Wealthier people with a choice tend to prefer inner-urban areas with better public transport.
If you just hit people in these areas with taxes and fines without a compelling alternative, and you’re effectively levelling a poor tax.
Give people access to good quality public transport — and yes it can be faster than being stuck in traffic — and they’ll choose it.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
Everyone understands that transit is terrible in car dependent suburbs. Low gas prices are a direct cause of that. Yes, if you leave from a station and go to another station, it might be faster than driving.
It’s a choice to focus on how high gas prices might negatively impact suburban commuters – who largely own their homes and can afford to operate a private vehicle – rather people who can’t own a car and are negatively impacted by low gas prices.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
It also looks like the council plan for the Rouse Hills Shire indicates an 80% mode share for private vehicles. The single train station to downtown and infrequent buses are not getting people out of cars.
https://www.thehills.nsw.gov.au/files/sharedassets/public/ecm-website-documents/page-documents/building/plans-guidelines/integrated_transport_and_land_use_strategy.pdf
Additionally, it looks like despite transit investments the metro is predicted to still see a 67% car mode share by 2031
https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Transport%20Modelling%20Report%20for%20Sydney.pdf
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
And your example is using a route with a toll! That is an example of the government hobbling driving.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t build transit. Or that it even should be a lower priority. I’m simply saying we should *also* raise the cost of driving because that impacts a lot of decisions, including the trade-off between using transit and driving as you demonstrated with your example.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The fastest alternative route is the M2 Hills Motorway, which was built as a tollway in 1997, in addition to all the existing roads in the area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M2_Hills_Motorway
Building a new motorway isn’t hobbling congestion, it’s enabling it.
It was supposed to relieve congestion to northwest Sydney.
Well, there’s still traffic jams.
And even compared to a completely grade-separated dual carriageway six-lane motorway, the Metro is *still* faster during peak hour.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The Hills Shire document you’re looking at is from 2019.
Notice how the Metro is referred to in the future we tense? “We anticipate…”
Well, the NW Metro only opened in 2019: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_North_West_Line
And the figures you’re quoting are from before the Metro opened.
Which is why the train modal share is just 1%. People had to catch a bus or drive to somewhere like Epping or Parramatta to get a train. The Hills were a pretty notorious public transport blackspot before the NW Metro opened.
I don’t see the logic in saying it hasn’t led to a shift in modal share before it opened?
The final phases of that Metro project, called Metro City & Southwest, are opening this year and in 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro_City_%26_Southwest
The NW Metro will also eventually connect with another Sydney Metro line to the new Western Sydney Airport. The first phase of that line is opening in 2026: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro_Western_Sydney_Airport
The second Infrastructure Australia report you linked to looks at the entire Sydney Metropolitan Area, not just northwest Sydney.
It’s like looking at overall modal share across the Greater New York metropolitan area to judge a new line in Brooklyn.
There are still public transport blackspots in Sydney. The Northern Beaches and the outer west are two prime examples.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
When do you expect transit to be sufficient to allow increasing gas prices? What do you think the Sydney mode share will be then?