of course adjustments will be made. but one can’t really say that chinese economy is going to crash when no examples of a 1.5 billion people economic power existed before.
and lets not forget that when demand rises for ev’s in western economies, considering the production capacity of the chinese market even high tariffs won’t make a dent on their exports. the eu is not ready to supply demand of ev’s by 2035. unless the state invests directly into car manufacturers just like the chinese gov is doing.
also another thing no one expects is the opening of the 1.5 billion consumer market as a bargaining chip by the chinese gov as a way to consolidate their position on the global market.
imho, the chinese gov has a lot of market solutions they haven’t used but that can be activated and negotiated in record time.
edit: just to add their increased car exports are to russia, which is not that good of a consumer market with everything going on there, but it could teach them a lesson on how to corner non western markets. the complexity of the global economy favours the chinese at this point in time. they have more options than the western world.
China has been dangling their consumer market to Western companies for the last 20 years as a way to encourage investment.
It hasn’t turned out well for them and many companies are leaving China. Suddenly reopening already “open markets” is not something the West is going to buy. You only get to pull that trick once.
The Demographics in China are also terrible. They are no longer the most populous nation on Earth. They are also the fastest aging due to the effects of the 1 child policy. The problem today isn’t that they aren’t running out of babies, they did that 20years ago. The problem is they are running out of 20 something’s to replace the older generations.
Add this to the issues with debt and the property market implosion and I don’t see China making it through the 2030s without some kind of fundamental government change.
No. China has a fertility rate of 1.2 right now. That’s worse than the West. EU sits at 1.53, USA 1.64. What’s worse is that this rate has been low for a very long time due to Mao’s One Child Policy.
being a autocratic state, the party will enact whatever policies it deems necessary. see the one child policy for an example. state propaganda will do what is needed. in fact, a huge class of people without citizenship, some class to be opressed, could even be a boon to maintain the party in power.
like i said before, china has options. the west doesn’t. and because china has options they can maneuver better the chaotic future that awaits all of us.
You are operating under the assumption that the party is rational. The grotesquely inept reaction to COVID-19 however has shown that it’s anything but. Not to mention, even if the state suddenly decides to reverse decades of Han-supremacy policies, which is extremely unlikely, this does not mean that immigrants will suddenly flock into China in anywhere close to sufficient numbers. I doubt this is even possible, given how huge China still is. Where are these people supposed to come from?
of course adjustments will be made. but one can’t really say that chinese economy is going to crash when no examples of a 1.5 billion people economic power existed before.
and lets not forget that when demand rises for ev’s in western economies, considering the production capacity of the chinese market even high tariffs won’t make a dent on their exports. the eu is not ready to supply demand of ev’s by 2035. unless the state invests directly into car manufacturers just like the chinese gov is doing.
also another thing no one expects is the opening of the 1.5 billion consumer market as a bargaining chip by the chinese gov as a way to consolidate their position on the global market.
imho, the chinese gov has a lot of market solutions they haven’t used but that can be activated and negotiated in record time.
edit: just to add their increased car exports are to russia, which is not that good of a consumer market with everything going on there, but it could teach them a lesson on how to corner non western markets. the complexity of the global economy favours the chinese at this point in time. they have more options than the western world.
China has been dangling their consumer market to Western companies for the last 20 years as a way to encourage investment. It hasn’t turned out well for them and many companies are leaving China. Suddenly reopening already “open markets” is not something the West is going to buy. You only get to pull that trick once.
The Demographics in China are also terrible. They are no longer the most populous nation on Earth. They are also the fastest aging due to the effects of the 1 child policy. The problem today isn’t that they aren’t running out of babies, they did that 20years ago. The problem is they are running out of 20 something’s to replace the older generations.
Add this to the issues with debt and the property market implosion and I don’t see China making it through the 2030s without some kind of fundamental government change.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
oh we’ll buy it. we’ll buy it because we are desperate for good consumer markets and china is that. also demographics is way worse in the west.
see this post about raising the retirement age to 71 in the uk. https://slrpnk.net/post/6418235
No. China has a fertility rate of 1.2 right now. That’s worse than the West. EU sits at 1.53, USA 1.64. What’s worse is that this rate has been low for a very long time due to Mao’s One Child Policy.
yeah but our demographics is helped by immigration theirs isn’t. they still have that window open to use. we don’t.
They won’t use it. China is going full-on ethnonationalist right now and is considerably less open to immigration than even in the past.
Exactly. China is extremely unfriendly to immigrants.
being a autocratic state, the party will enact whatever policies it deems necessary. see the one child policy for an example. state propaganda will do what is needed. in fact, a huge class of people without citizenship, some class to be opressed, could even be a boon to maintain the party in power.
like i said before, china has options. the west doesn’t. and because china has options they can maneuver better the chaotic future that awaits all of us.
You are operating under the assumption that the party is rational. The grotesquely inept reaction to COVID-19 however has shown that it’s anything but. Not to mention, even if the state suddenly decides to reverse decades of Han-supremacy policies, which is extremely unlikely, this does not mean that immigrants will suddenly flock into China in anywhere close to sufficient numbers. I doubt this is even possible, given how huge China still is. Where are these people supposed to come from?
indeed you are correct. i’m giving the party way too much credit. but i do that for every gov in power.
mostly bordering countries, just like the us. laos, cambodia, vietnam would be the origins of said immigrants.