• paddirn@lemmy.world
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    9 months ago

    I think if Texas pulled the trigger on secession, there’d be a few states that joined up with them, I don’t know that it’d be the entire US against just one state. If they seriously went for it, it’d probably be because they thought they had enough strength in numbers.

    Unfortunately for them though, Republican-leaning states tend to have lower populations and wouldn’t really be able to provide much help. Florida I guess has a big population too, but not sure how helpful they’d be either with their demographics.

    On the plus side though, we could potentially clear out alot of these MAGA idiots in office, assuming we actually started punishing people for insurrection.

    • themeatbridge@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      The larger the state, the more internal resistance there will be. Not everyone in Texas or Florida will want to secede, and everybody can buy a gun. It’s one thing to gather some pride boys and meal team six larpers in the town square and march around for a bit, but it’s an entirely other thing to defend territory when you’re outnumbered, outgunned, and half the population is against you.

      Oklahoma and Arkansas might be up for it, but there’s no way secessionists hold Miami or Austin.

      • Osa-Eris-Xero512@kbin.social
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        9 months ago

        2 issues there: the food and fuel for those cities move through the traitor parts of the state. Supply lines will be a major issue in the early weeks of any major event. In addition to that, those blue cities aren’t homogeneous just like their states aren’t, so there will be further subdivision past the metro line.

        • Cannibal_MoshpitV3@lemmy.worldOP
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          9 months ago

          Counter point: how will they pay for an army, the power grid, and supplies? Not to mention the fact that the local ar-15 touting, walmart-scooter-surfer isnt equipped to protect its supply lines from air superiority, let alone a global navy, when blockaded?

          They will face the same issues that destroyed them 160 years ago, but 1000x the difficulty

        • themeatbridge@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          That works both ways, though, and the US Military is going to have significant logistics advantages. Coastal cities can resupply from boats, and Texas doesn’t have anti-aircraft defenses along the northern and western borders. In the event of a declared armed insurrection, it won’t last long enough for milk to go bad in the fridge.

      • pingveno@lemmy.ml
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        9 months ago

        Not just that, but the economic powerhouses are almost exclusively cities run by Democrats. Even deep red states have Democrats as mayors of their big cities. Texas would have a hard time funding a war if they were trying to do it on the backs of porcupines.

      • CurlyMoustache@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        And you have a hitbox that is quite a bit larger than normal, and various health style related illnesses dependent on the free flow of medicine

      • Scubus@sh.itjust.works
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        9 months ago

        Nah, as someone who lives in Oklahoma, about half the younger generation has a functioning nervous system that would prevent that from happening. If we seriously tried to go any more red, there would be violence in the streets.

    • SatanicNotMessianic@lemmy.ml
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      9 months ago

      It’s just political posturing.

      1. They don’t have a military. The National Guard units would come under the command of the President of the US, and any units in rebellion would know they’re facing courts martial for crimes that would be career limiting in that the penalties could include anything from life in prison to execution. It’s literally treason by the legal definition.
      2. Even if any significant number of troops were to choose to violate the law, modern war isn’t about riflemen. There’s a massive infrastructure required to keep tanks and planes running, not to mention things like carrier battle groups. Northrop and Raytheon aren’t going to be forfeiting USG contracts to sell missile systems to Ohio.
      3. Only the president has the nuclear codes, so nuclear blackmail can’t work either.

      There isn’t going to be another civil war. Too much has changed between then and now in terms of military and economic organization. This is just Texas whacking off yet again, as they did under Obama and Bill Clinton.

      The very real risks we’re facing are the election of Donald Trump - this is the biggest threat - and far right domestic terrorism. The former is an existential threat to the United States and should be treated as such. The latter is a law enforcement issue and should be treated as such. I suspect the Proud Boys are infiltrated all to hell as are the other major organizations, but there’s the potential for a significant amount of harm being done on a larger than 9/11 scale, although it’d be drawn out.

      • emergencyfood@sh.itjust.works
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        9 months ago

        modern war isn’t about riflemen. There’s a massive infrastructure required to keep tanks and planes running, not to mention things like carrier battle groups.

        The problem is that they don’t need to ‘win’ to get what they want; they just need to be enough of a nuisance to get concessions from the government. And both Ukraine and Gaza are showing us how effectively a bunch of people with rifles, drones and RPGs can frustrate an army. Sure, a lot of them will die, but I worry that it might be a sacrifice their leaders are willing to make if that means they get to hurt a lot of innocent people.

    • Cannibal_MoshpitV3@lemmy.worldOP
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      9 months ago

      All their national guards will be federalized and fall in line the second they are told their lifelong benefits will be revoked if they disobey an order to remain in place.

      Most of them are under 25s that joined for free healthcare and education they couldnt afford on their own. A fraction of a percentage are willing to fight and die in the name of a state, let alone one they dont live in 😂

      • Transporter Room 3@startrek.website
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        9 months ago

        Hi, I was an under 25 that needed Healthcare, and wanted a formal education.

        I personally am of the belief that one has a duty to disobey any illegal order, and since this fits the bill,a sizeable number would disobey on that premise alone.

        But I also know that’s not likely what does it, but benefits and pay.

        I personally know several people who honestly think that “THREE PERCENT!” of the population could honestly stand against their parent country in modern day. And of course, they hold that belief purely from their “only 3% fought the British” and think that a colonial territory in 1776 would somehow translate to home country rebellion in 2024.

        Could they do damage and be a nuisance, and create generational issues? Absolutely. Succeed and establish themselves as a respected sovereign nation, or conquer the federal government? Anyone who honestly thinks that’s feasible without the federal government saying “eh, whatever I don’t really care” is fooling themselves.

        My time in the navy was more than enough to convince me that no state could ever pull that off, just on Naval power alone. Largest navy, 2nd largest air force, marines technically part of it (don’t ever tell them that unless you have their favorite flavor of crayon as an apology) and since the federal government knows literally every single thing about their off/Def capabilities are, it would be over before my hot chocolate gets cold.

    • db2@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      Republican states are all running in the red and I don’t mean the political red. They’re constantly getting financially bailed out by everyone else. It’s gross.