With people learning about Fediverse, I’m guessing Instagram. Why? Because IG has become overwhelmed with influencers and TikTok-like junk. The initial wave of people into Pixelfed will be techies that want a break from that scene. Their friends will hear about it. The friends that just want to have an IG-like experience to share their pictures with friends while avoiding all the rest of the noise will slowly transfer over. Once they hit the critical mass, the switch will happen. This will take at least another year or two.
I think there’s a missing link in your forecast: what will make people who are not techies, who currently use IG, stop using it, leaving behind their contacts at IG? They aren’t going to want to use two platforms, so it’ll have to be a clean break. I don’t think hearing about alternatives from techies is going to do it, IMO. It’s how a lot of people keep in contact.
Network effect is really sticky. Most of the users of the internet were once techie folk. Now it’s everyone.
that’s a good point. people will want to leave IG to get away from the influencing culture of IG once they hear about a cleaner alternative that they can use to block out the influencing. that’s going to be the slowest part. I’m likening it to how people left MySpace for FB to get away from the madness that was MYSpace for the less cluttered and more exclusive scene that was FB.
another aspect to this that I didn’t mention is the integration with the Fediverse that will be popularized by the Reddit migration. once people see that their Lemmy, kbin, Mastodon, and Pixelfed can be accessed from a common location using a common language, they will see it as simpler, more integrated, and with more control over their social media with a rejection of corporate BS. this depends on how well the Fediverse integrates the different media and advances in phone apps.
additionally, I’ve ran the models (X^2, regression [y^2 = ax^2 + b^2], confirmatory factor analysis, global environmental multiscale, and Tyra Banks). the stats show a range of 5%-75% probability with a ±10% error depending on how I define the degrees of Farenheit (mostly went with radian degrees👌).
I think you underestimate how much people actually like influencing. If everyone hated it (like maybe the two of us do) it would never have gotten off the ground in the first place.
Ppl left myspace because fb ran aggresssive marketing campaigns that allowed the messaging platforms to interoporate. You could join fb without totally loosing touch with myspace. See cory doctorow.
Also, fb was launched intensively and exclusively in a group of iirc 8 universities to establish a user base. They got a foothold in an elite and influential group and spread slowly.
This is the part that no floss seems to plan for. Make something for a specific non nerd group. Myspace was for music. Need to establish a base.
Yeah public instagram is utter garbage. From photo quality to the current environment. Pixelfed is a really awesome federated alternative though I don’t really see how it could resist the same fate if it ever got as much mass.
With people learning about Fediverse, I’m guessing Instagram. Why? Because IG has become overwhelmed with influencers and TikTok-like junk. The initial wave of people into Pixelfed will be techies that want a break from that scene. Their friends will hear about it. The friends that just want to have an IG-like experience to share their pictures with friends while avoiding all the rest of the noise will slowly transfer over. Once they hit the critical mass, the switch will happen. This will take at least another year or two.
I think there’s a missing link in your forecast: what will make people who are not techies, who currently use IG, stop using it, leaving behind their contacts at IG? They aren’t going to want to use two platforms, so it’ll have to be a clean break. I don’t think hearing about alternatives from techies is going to do it, IMO. It’s how a lot of people keep in contact.
Network effect is really sticky. Most of the users of the internet were once techie folk. Now it’s everyone.
that’s a good point. people will want to leave IG to get away from the influencing culture of IG once they hear about a cleaner alternative that they can use to block out the influencing. that’s going to be the slowest part. I’m likening it to how people left MySpace for FB to get away from the madness that was MYSpace for the less cluttered and more exclusive scene that was FB.
another aspect to this that I didn’t mention is the integration with the Fediverse that will be popularized by the Reddit migration. once people see that their Lemmy, kbin, Mastodon, and Pixelfed can be accessed from a common location using a common language, they will see it as simpler, more integrated, and with more control over their social media with a rejection of corporate BS. this depends on how well the Fediverse integrates the different media and advances in phone apps.
additionally, I’ve ran the models (X^2, regression [y^2 = ax^2 + b^2], confirmatory factor analysis, global environmental multiscale, and Tyra Banks). the stats show a range of 5%-75% probability with a ±10% error depending on how I define the degrees of Farenheit (mostly went with radian degrees👌).
I think you underestimate how much people actually like influencing. If everyone hated it (like maybe the two of us do) it would never have gotten off the ground in the first place.
Ppl left myspace because fb ran aggresssive marketing campaigns that allowed the messaging platforms to interoporate. You could join fb without totally loosing touch with myspace. See cory doctorow.
Also, fb was launched intensively and exclusively in a group of iirc 8 universities to establish a user base. They got a foothold in an elite and influential group and spread slowly.
This is the part that no floss seems to plan for. Make something for a specific non nerd group. Myspace was for music. Need to establish a base.
Yeah public instagram is utter garbage. From photo quality to the current environment. Pixelfed is a really awesome federated alternative though I don’t really see how it could resist the same fate if it ever got as much mass.