Why do alt-history people never focus on infrastructure or innovation? What would have happened had bikes been invented centuries before cars instead of around the same time? How different would the built environment and our culture have looked?
Personally, I think centuries of more established bike use would have created an infrastructure that limits how well cars take off. Cities would have entrenched themselves in a cheap, dense manner of transit.
I could be wrong, lots of dense cities were wrecked by the car when it was commercialized. I’d love to hear any thoughts :)
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We literally destroyed perfectly working pedestrian neighbourhoods to make them better for cars. I can not see how having bicycles earlier would have changed anything. We had trains well before cars and at a massive scale and they did not stop cars either.
Not Just Bikes had shots of 1930s/1940s Houston in one of their videos and it was a pedestrian paradise that got bulldozed so cars could fly through neighborhoods at 40 mph
Bikes need a level of precision manufacturing that means cars and airplanes are just around the corner no matter what alternative history you come up with. If you sent a modern machinist back to 10BC they could maybe make a bike by hand (if they are lucky enough to get a rich sponsor - making a Gingery style lathe by hand is something a modern machinist would be able to figure out it takes a lot of time an materials that are were not cheap), but the cost would be such that the only people who could afford it already have slaves to carry them everywhere. There might be demand for a handful as a novelty for their young sons (sexist world, girls need not apply) but it will soon disappear as those slaves are cheaper than the bike. (it takes a lot of slaves to mine and refine the ore needed to make the bike)
The world would still be burning, though.
Yeah if bicycles had been discovered before fossil fuels I think history would look very very different and it is a great point.
It is interesting looking forward too, 20th century might have been all about fossil fuel burning cars but the future is electric bicycles and tricycles. After all, the bicycle as a form of human powered transportation was perfected in the development of mountain bike, road bike and cruiser bike types during the later half of the 20th century, and so as a “cutting edge” technology electric bicycles take almost no new development and R&D to figure out what works.
Certainly a myriad of forms of electric bicycles will arise (like the bakfiets), but it is interesting how titanic a shift the adoption of electric bicycles will be and yet they didn’t require the development of totally new technologies to make this transportation technology function. Take a mountain bicycle, strap a battery to it and boom you have by far the most effective form of transportation ever developed in terms of a human carry-able vehicle that can transport you hundreds of miles over virtually any kind of terrain (so long as people have at least walked that route enough to make a trail).
The battery pack slots on electric bicycles will become the place people strap the power banks everyone is increasingly carrying around to power their mobile devices. I heard someone describe their perspective as a tank crewman about how infantry carrying around big heavy rifles is silly, they pointed out “why carry a gun when your gun can carry you?” and I feel the same exact way about electric battery banks on electric bicycles.
I know most of this reply has been in relation to the future of the bicycle, but the incredible explosion of electric bicycle use that is happening (and will continue to happen all over the world in rich and poor countries) I think necessarily points to the fact that bicycles were an innovation with a lot of latent possibility that was passed over by history for quite a long time (and bicycles just kept getting better mostly in the background). I think it points to the validity of your question, what would have happened had history focused on the bicycle sooner?
