No: because that assumes that Putin knew Trump was going to win.
Both sides knew that the outcome of a coin flip election could make or break the terms of any future agreement, so Putin had no way to confidently know that a negotiation in 2025 would yield better terms than 2024.
I mean, it’s all hypothetical. Maybe Putin would rather go for broke, because he’s insane and an evil asshole. Maybe he’d rather die blowing up the whole world than every accept a stalemate. But the theory that there was no room to negotiate is preposterous.
I can definitely say in this moment, though, that Biden’s refusal to even discuss negotiating a ceasefire was certainly a massive, costly mistake.
No: because that assumes that Putin knew Trump was going to win.
Both sides knew that the outcome of a coin flip election could make or break the terms of any future agreement, so Putin had no way to confidently know that a negotiation in 2025 would yield better terms than 2024.
I mean, it’s all hypothetical. Maybe Putin would rather go for broke, because he’s insane and an evil asshole. Maybe he’d rather die blowing up the whole world than every accept a stalemate. But the theory that there was no room to negotiate is preposterous.
I can definitely say in this moment, though, that Biden’s refusal to even discuss negotiating a ceasefire was certainly a massive, costly mistake.