It’s possible to sample the overall vote count of a state from a small number of ballots in every precinct. There’s a high margin of error, but if the results are decisive enough, it’s possible to call a date at 2% official count.
Not sure if it’s allowed in the US, but if you can get data from counting locations before they’re officially reported, then it’s very easy to get an accurate sample well before the official numbers are clear. Exit polls help with analysis as well.
In the US as far as i know the media can’t get access to the official data before it’s reported. What you can get is exit polls but that’s just people leaving the polls who agrees to talk to the press.
It’s possible to sample the overall vote count of a state from a small number of ballots in every precinct. There’s a high margin of error, but if the results are decisive enough, it’s possible to call a date at 2% official count.
Not sure if it’s allowed in the US, but if you can get data from counting locations before they’re officially reported, then it’s very easy to get an accurate sample well before the official numbers are clear. Exit polls help with analysis as well.
Video about the math behind it:
https://youtu.be/K-hdJIWsK3A
In the US as far as i know the media can’t get access to the official data before it’s reported. What you can get is exit polls but that’s just people leaving the polls who agrees to talk to the press.
You can go ahead and call new York and California with 0% reporting now.